23 July 2017

Who will be in Timor-Leste’s next Parliament? / Se sei tuir iha Parlamentu Nasionál?

As of 10:15 pm on Sunday, 23 July, STAE had reported partial results with more than 98% of the votes counted. Based on this data, La’o Hamutuk estimated the number of seats each party will get in the next Parliament.  For each slate, we have listed the next few names (italicized, blue background) in case some of people decline their seats or the vote count changes slightly. A large percentage of the not-yet-counted votes are in Dili, whose voting patterns are different from more rural areas. Therefore, the results could change.

Iha tuku 2215 loron 23 Jullu, STAE fó sai rezultadu parsiál ho liu 98% vota konta ona. Husi dadus ne’e, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza kadeira hira partidu ida idak sei hetan iha Parlamentu Nasionál, tuir lista iha ne’e. Iha kada lista, ami inklui naran balu liu tan (italic, kór azúl), karik ema balu iha leten la simu sira nia kadeira, ka rezulta muda uitoan. Vota barak seidauk konta mai husi Dili, no eleitor sira iha kapital la hanesan kompara ho sira iha areas rurais. Entaun, resultadu bele muda.

FRETILIN – kadeira 23 seats

1    Mari Bim Amude Alkatiri (M)
2    Francisco Miranda Branco (M)
3    Josefa Álvares Pereira Soares (F)
4    Aniceto Longuinhos Guterres Lopes (M)
5    Joaquim dos Santos (M)
6    Ilda Maria da Conceição (F)
7    Rui Maria de Araújo (M)
8    Estanislau da C. Aleixo Maria da Silva (M)
9    Cidália Mesquita Ximenes (F)
10  David Dias Ximenes (M)
11  José Agostinho Sequeira “Somotxo” (M)
12  Florentina da Conceição Pereira Martins ”Smith” (F)
13  Antoninho Bianco (M)
14  Osório Florindo da Conceição Costa (M)
15  Maria Angélica Rangel da Cruz dos Reis (F)
16  António dos Santos (M)
17  Dário Madeira (M)
18  Lídia Norberta dos Santos Martins (F)
19  Gabriela Alves (F)
20  Silvino Adolfo Morais (M)
21  Angélica da Costa (F)
22  Domingos Sávio Cabral Ribeiro (M)
23  Fausto Freitas da Silva (M)
24  Noémia Sequeira (F)
25  Aurélio Freitas Ribeiro (M)
26  Maria Anabela Sávio (F)
27  Alexandrino Cardoso da Cruz (M)
28  Félix da Costa (M)
29  Nurima Ribeiro Alkatiri (F)
30  Gil Teófilo Amaral (M)
31  Manuel de Araujo Martins (M)
32  Mariquita Soares (F)
33  Bernardo Lopes (M)

C.N.R.T. – kadeira 22 seats

1    Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão (M)
2    Dionisio Da Costa Babo Soares (M)
3    Maria Terezinha Da Silva Viegas (F)
4    Aderito Hugo Da Costa (M)
5    Francisco Kabuadi Lay (M)
6    Virgina Ana Belo (F)
7    Jacinto Rigoberto Gomes De Deus (M)
8    Natalino Dos Santos Nascimemto (M)
9    Carmelita Caetano Moniz (F)
10  Ricardo Baptista (M)
11  Francisco Da Costa Guterres (M)
12  Brigida Antonia Correia (F)
13  Vicente Da Silva Guterres (M)
14  Duarte Nunes (M)
15  Maria Fernanda Lay (F)
16  Julio Tomas Pinto (M)
17  Eduardo De Deus Barreto (M)
18  Maria Rosa Da Camara Bisoi (F)
19  Patrocino Fernnades Dos Reis (M)
20  Virgilio Pereira (M)
21  Albina Marcal Freitas (F)
22  Leandro Lobato (M)
23  Jacinto Viegas Vicente (M)
24  Veneranda Eurico M. L. Martins (F)
25  Arao Noe De J. Da C. Marcal (M)
26  Domingos Carvalho De Araujo (M)
27  Bendita Moniz Magno (F)
28  Fermino Taequi (M)

PLP – kadeira 8 seats

1    Taur Matan Ruak (M)
2    Fidelis Manuel Leite Magalhães (M)
3    Rosalina Ximenes (F)
4    Abraão José Freitas (M)
5    Demetrio do Amaral de Carvalho (M)
6    Maria Angelina Lopes Sarmento (F)
7    Abel Pires da Silva (M)
8    Mericio Juvinal dos Reis (M)
9    Signi Chandrawati Verdial (F)
10  Sabino Soares (M)

PD – kadeira 7 seats

1    Mariano Sabino Lopes (M)
2    Antonio da Conceição (M)
3    Elvina Sousa Carvalho (F)
4    Ernesto Fernandes Dudu (M)
5    Adriano do Nascimento (M)
6    Maria Teresa da Silva Gusmão (F)
7    Manuel Tomas Amaral de Carvalho (M)
8    Julio Sarmento da Costa (M)
9    Flotilda Sequeira Hermenegildo da Costa (F)
10  Alexandre Afonso Nunes (M)

KHUNTO – kadeira 5 seats

1    Armanda Berta dos Santos (F)
2    Olinda Guterres (F)
3    António Verdial de Sousa (M)
4    Jose Agustinho da Silva (M)
5    Luis Roberto da Silva (M)
6    Irene Gonzaga Sarmento (F)
7    Antonio Maria Nobre A. Tilman (M)

19 July 2017

Advance planning … just in case

Timor-Leste voters will go to the polls this Saturday to elect 65 Members of Parliament, who will choose a Prime Minister and the country’s Seventh Constitutional Government. Although most observers do not expect major shifts in the current political line-up, the current government is awarding two major contracts now to safeguard benefits for a few, just in case voters take control of the public purse strings away from those who currently hold power.

On 27 April, the National Procurement Commission announced its intention to award more than $90 million in contracts to supply generator fuel to the Hera and Betano electric power plants for the next two years. In the past, such contracts have been awarded for one year at a time, but with a possible impending change of government, two years is safer for the suppliers.

Although the National Procurement Commission declined to respond to La’o Hamutuk’s request for more information about this tender, the bids from the two winning companies were so close as to raise concerns about possible collusion. We have no additional evidence of illicit actions, but Esperança Timor Oan (ETO, headed by Nilton Gusmão, Xanana’s nephew) won the larger contract for Hera with a bid that was 0.13% lower than the bid from SACOM Energy (headed by Abilio Araújo, a former FRETILIN leader currently campaigning for PLP). SACOM won the Betano contract, bidding 1.8% lower than ETO. Pertamina also bid for both contracts, bidding more than 10% above the other two companies.

Another tender was announced on 14 July, with the National Procurement Commission inviting bids to supply 68 Toyota Prado Land Cruisers to Parliament. Although the tender is open until 14 August and the price in the winning bid is not yet known, the 2017 State Budget allocates $3.2 million to purchase vehicles for Parliament this year (up from $86 thousand in 2016 and $22 thousand in 2015), so apparently each car will cost more than $45,000.

Five years ago, Parliament spent $4 million to buy new cars for each of its Members to use, and the Members were allowed to purchase the old ones for personal use at bargain prices. We don’t know how many of those cars are still on the road, but the pattern is repeating. The National Procurement Commission was more helpful this time, and supplied the detailed bidding documents, including this specification.

Although announcements about these tenders have been published in local newspapers and on the Ministry of Finance website, the news has not been reported in commercial or social media, and La’o Hamutuk think it is important for voters to know.

Timor-Leste’s oil revenues have nearly ended, and the $16 billion saved in the Petroleum Fund is being depleted. When voters go to the polls, we encourage them to support parties which envision a sustainable, diversified, equitable economy for all of Timor-Leste’s people.

Governu nia planu sedu … atu antisipa buat ruma?

Timor oan sira sei ba sentru votasaun iha Sábadu semana ne’e atu hili Deputadu/a na’in 65, sira ne’e mak sei deside Timor-Leste nia Primeiru Ministru no Sétimu Governu Konstitusionál. Maske ema barak la ekspeta katak sei iha mudansa signifikante iha estrutura polítika daudaun ne’e nian, maibé governu atuál fó sai ona kontratu boot rua atu asegura sira nia benefísiu rasik,  atu antisipa  votante sira manán  fali kontrola ba sira nia fundu públiku husi ukun na’in sira atuál.

Iha 27 Abril, Komisaun Nasional ba Aprovizionamentu (CNA) anúnsiu katak nia intensaun atu ajudika kontratu ho montante liu tokon $90 atu fornese kombustivel ba sentru elétriku Hera no Betano, ba tinan rua oin mai nian. Iha pasadu, kontratu sira hanesan ne’e fó de’it ba durasaun tinan ida. Tanba posivel atu iha governu foun, entaun kontratu ba tinan rua ne’e asegura benefísiu ba fornesedór atuál sira.

Maske Komisaun Aprovizionamentu lakohi atu hatán ba La’o Hamutuk nia pedidu atu hetan informasaun liután kona-ba tender ida ne’e, presu iha proposta husi kompañia rua ne’ebé manán besik hanesan, no ida ne’e hamosu preokupasaun kona-ba poténsia ba koluzaun. La’o Hamutuk la iha evidénsia adisionál kona-ba aktu ilegál ruma, maibé Esperança Timor Oan (ETO, ne’ebé lidera husi Nilton Gusmão, Xanana Gusmao nia sobriñu) manán kontratu ida montante boot ba Hera, maibé nia proposta fó presu 0.13% ki’ik liu kompara ho proposta ne’ebé hato’o husi SACOM Energy (lidera husi Abilio Araújo, eis lider prinsipál FRETILIN iha tempu funu ne’ebé daudaun ne’e halo hela kampaña ba PLP) nian. Aumezmu tempu, SACOM manán kontratu ba sentrál elétrika Betano, ho proposta ne’ebé 1.8% ki’ik liu kompara ho ETO nian. Pertamina mós tuir konkursu ba kontratu rua ne’e hotu, ho proposta rua ho presu 10% boot liu kompara ho kompañia rua ne’ebé ikus mai manán kontratu.

Aleinde ne’e, tenderizasaun seluk tan anunsia ona iha semana ida ne’e, ne’ebé Komisaun Nasional Aprovizionamentu konvida proposta atu fornese Toyota Prado Land Cruiser 68 ba Parlamentu Nasional. Maske tenderizasaun sei loke to’o 14 Agostu no ita seidauk hatene loos montante presu loloos, maibé Orsamentu Estadu 2017 aloka ona tokon $3.2 atu hola karreta foun ba Parlamentu iha tinan ida ne’e (sa’e husi rihun $86 iha 2016 no rihun $22 iha 2015), entaun ita bele dehan katak kada karreta ida nia folin sei liu  $45,000.


Tinan lima liu ba, Parlamentu gasta tokon haat hodi ba sosa karreta foun ba ninia deputadu/a sira, no bainhira sira nia mandatu remata, deputadu/a sira ne’e bele leilaun karreta tuan sira ba sira nia uzu privadu, ho presu ne’ebé baratu liu. Ita la hatene karik karreta Prado sira ne’e barak mak sei funsiona hela ka lae, maibé tendénsia ba leilaun ida ne’e repete fila fali ona. Komisaun Nasional Aprovizionamentu kolabora ho di’ak kona-ba tender ida ne’e nia informasaun kompara ho detallu tenderizasaun sira ba kombustivel nian. CNA fornese dokumentu tenderizasaun sira ho detallu, inklui espesifikasaun ida ne’e.

Maske anúnsiu sira kona-ba tenderizasaun publika ona iha jornál lokál no iha Ministériu Finansas nia portal, informasaun sira ne’e seidauk fó sai iha media komersiál ka sosiál sira, no La’o Hamutuk hanoin katak importante atu votante sira bele hatene.

Timor-Leste nia reseita petróleu besik atu hotu ona, no biliaun $16 ne’ebé sei rai hela iha Fundu Petrolíferu komesa tun ona. Bainhira votante sira ba vota, ami enkoraja sira atu suporta partidu sira ne’ebé mak iha vizaun ba ekonomia sustentável, diversifikadu, no justu ba Timor oan sira hotu.

09 July 2017

Informasaun kona-ba Eleisaun Parlamentár 2017

La'o Hamutuk nudár organizasaun sosiedade sivíl ida ne’ebé independente no naun partidáriu iha Timor-Leste. Ami involve iha eleisaun Parlamentár 2017 nian atu enkoraja kandidatu no partidu sira atu diskute polítika sira ne’ebé mak sira sei implementa iha tinan lima oin mai, no atu enkoraja sidadaun sira atu vota ba partidu sira ne’ebé ninia plataforma sira (sidadaun sira) konkorda.

Ami nia pájina web inklui informasaun importante sira ne’ebé iha relasaun ho eleisaun, inklui lista kandidatu sira iha kadeira parlamentár nian, lei sira, oráriu no lista fatin votasaun.

La’o Hamutuk distribui poster no broxura hodi sujere asuntu sira ba votante sira atu konsidera molok sira ba vota. Ami prodús ona programa radio ida ne’ebé foka ba asuntu importante sira tuir ami nia haree, ne’ebé sai hanesan risku iha Timor-Leste, no programa ida tan ho Lian Husi Eleitores sira. Ami distribui kestionáriu ida atu husu kona-ba partidu ida-idak nia pozisaun ba kestaun polítika xave sira, no ami sei publika ninia rezultadu sira bainhira ami hetan ona sira nia resposta.

Hanoin molok ba vota! Partidu ne’ebé manán eleisaun sei halo no ezekuta polítika estadu nian durante tinan lima tuir mai.

Information on 2017 Parliamentary Election

La'o Hamutuk, as an independent, non-partisan civil society organization, is engaging with the 2017 Parliamentary election to encourage candidates and parties to discuss the policies that they will implement over the next five years, and to encourage citizens to vote for parties whose platforms they agree with.

Our English/Tetum web page on the election includes much more information, such as the names on each party slate, election laws, calendars, polling place lists and other materials.

La'o Hamutuk is distributing a Tetum-language poster "Think before going to vote" and brochure suggesting things for voters to consider before they vote. We have also produced a radio program highlighting important issues at stake, and another with voters' expectations. We distributed a questionnaire asking each party for their positions on key policy questions, and we will publish the responses as we receive them.

La'o Hamutuk is providing briefings on fundamental issues facing Timor-Leste, to help put the election in context. The briefing is a version of this presentation, and will be in English, free of charge to observers, journalists, and others who would like to understand the challenges Timor-Leste faces in transitioning from petroleum-export-dependency to sustainable, equitable development.

More than 30 people from 20 organizations came to the first briefing on 13 July. We will hold another on Tuesday, 18 July, from 3:00 to 5:00 pm at La’o Hamutuk’s office in Bebora, Dili. If you're interested but can't come at that time, please email laohamutuk@gmail.com and we may schedule another.

Hanoin molok ba vota! Whoever wins the election will decide and implement government policy for the next five years.

22 June 2017

Join La’o Hamutuk at the Timor-Leste Studies Association

Mai Akompaña La’o Hamutuk iha Asosiasaun ba Estudu sira Kona-ba Timor-Leste

The biannual Timor-Leste Studies Association on 29-30 June is a vital event for Timorese and international researchers, including those from civil society and from academia, to share findings and learn from each other. It’s also a useful opportunity for building networks and exploring future collaboration.
Timor-Leste Studies Association ne’ebé hala’o tinan rua dala ida mak eventu esensiál ida ba peskizadóres Timor oan no internasionál sira, inklui sira ne’ebé mai husi sosiedade sivíl no akadémia, hodi fahe rezultadu estudu sira ba malu no troka koñesimentu entre sira. Ida ne’e oportunidade di’ak ida atu hamoris ligasaun no buka posibilidade ba kolaborasaun iha futuru.

La’o Hamutuk would like to invite all TLSA and VU conference participants to a reception at our office in Bebora on Monday, 3 July from 4:00 pm on for snacks and informal discussion.
La’o Hamutuk hakarak konvida partisipante TLSA no VU sira hotu atu mai tuir resepsaun ida iha ami nia servisu fatin iha Bebora, iha loron segunda, 3 Jullu, tuku haat lorokraik, ba snak no ko’alia malu informálmente.

The TLSA conference schedule is at http://tlstudies.org/ and is updated regularly. Researchers from La’o Hamutuk will give seven presentations, summarized below. We hope you will participate in some of our sessions; please confirm rooms and times on the final schedule.
Oráriu konferénsia TLSA nian bele hetan iha http://tlstudies.org/ no atualiza regulármente. La’o Hamutuk nia peskizadór sira sei fahe aprezentasaun hitu. Ami hein katak ita boot sira sei mai tuir sesaun balun husi ami nia aprezentasaun hitu ne’e; Keta haluha konfirma fila fali fatin no oras hotu iha oráriu final nian.

Oil, Debt and Sustainability: Timor-Leste’s Borrowing Plans and their Implications for the Future

By Niall Almond. Powerpoint or PDF
In 2012, Timor-Leste began borrowing from international institutions to finance infrastructure projects, and since then it has signed twelve loan contracts. The country’s petroleum resources are almost depleted, and the non-oil economy has not substantially improved, with most growth fuelled by government spending of oil money. Advisers and other independent observers have warned the government about taking on debt given the current economic outlook; however, the 2017 State Budget plans to borrow more than ever before. This paper will examine Timor-Leste’s current and future borrowing, the projects that are being prioritised, and the dangers this poses to Timor-Leste’s economic sustainability. It also discusses other countries which found themselves unable to pay large loans, and suggests how Timor-Leste can avoid the same fate.

As Bayu-Undan Dries Up: Challenges and Opportunities

By Charles Scheiner. Powerpoint or PDF
Revenues from petroleum may no longer be able to feed Timor-Leste’s economy and state finances, and the nation must find other nutrition. For the first 14 years of independence, money from oil and gas exports – primarily the Bayu-Undan field – nourished the creation of democratic state institutions and helped people emerge from a generation of brutality, war and devastation. But the oil era is ending: 97% of the expected revenue from developed fields had been received by the end of 2016, and prospects for additional extractive income are uncertain. This paper will explore the history of oil and gas in Timor-Leste, possibilities for additional revenues, and the recurring dream of external sources of wealth. It will also touch on some more sustainable alternatives based on the country’s human and renewable resources. 

Malisan Rekursu iha Timor-Leste: Hosi Jestaun Fundu Petrolíferu no polítika orsamentál Timor-Leste

Husi Juvinal Dias. Session 4, Room A   
Iha 2005, Timor-Leste estabelese Fundo Petrolíferu nudár meius investimentu finanseiru atu jere nia rendimentu Petrolíferu bai benefísiu jerasaun ohin no futuru nian. Fundu ne’e iha nia regra hodi investe iha forma asoens no títulu estadu. Nune'e mós estabelese prinsipiu sustentabilidade nudár matadalan bainhira halo levantamentu ba Orsamentu Jerál estadu tinan-tinan. Fundu sai tiha fontes prinsipál ba Timor-Leste nia ekonomia. Iha levantamentu lubuk Fundu liu Rendimentu Sustentável Estimativa (RSE) ne’ebé sei fó impaktu ba sustentabilidade Timor-Leste. Levantamentu sira ne’e maiór parte atu finansia mega projetu sira ne’ebé Governu deside ona iha nia Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasional. Peskiza ida ne’e sei sukat oinsá jestaun Fundu Petrolíferu no polítika fiskál hadalan malisan rekursu mai Timor-Leste, oinsá ho futuru Fundu, retornu investimentu no planu levanta RSE liu dala tolu kada tinan hosi 2018-2021. 

Dezenvolvimentu Projetu Infrastrutura Sira no Dezafiu ba Implementasaun Lisensamentu Ambientál iha Timor-Leste

Husi Adilsonio da C. Junior.  Powerpoint ka PDF
Timor-Leste nia konstrusaun infrastrutura fíziku sira iha mudansa ne’ebé signifikante hafoin hetan nia independénsia iha 2002. Mudansa ba implementasaun projetu infrastrutura sira ne’e lori risku oin-oin ba ita niameiu-ambiente, balada fuik sira no mós sosiedade afetadu sira nia moris ba tempu naruk. Iha nivel pratika, projetu na’in sira dala ruma viola tiha atu implementa enkuadramentu legal sira kona ba lisensamentu ambientál ne’ebé governu estabelese ona hodi regula kona ba atividade projetu no sai pratika di’ak ne’ebé implementador projetu infrastrutura sira tenke kumpre. Estudu ida ne’e sei fornese dadus no informasaun importante ne’ebé instituisaun interesadu oin-oin bele utiliza ba dezeña sira programa no mós sai informasaun baze ba peskizadór sira seluk atu halo programa peskiza iha futuru oin mai.

Dezafiu ba Indústria Ki’ik Prosesamentu Produtu Agríkola iha Timor-Leste

Husi Maxi Tahu. Session 5, Room E
Peskiza kona-ba dezafiu no oportunidade indústria ki’ik prosesamentu produtu agríkola ne'e buka atu komprende fatór tékniku no polítika sira ne'ebé sai dezafiu ba kreximentu indústria ki’ik prosesamentu produtu agríkola iha Timor-Leste. Peskiza ne'e mós halibur informasaun kona-bá poténsia indústria sira ne'e nian no halo analiza kona ba fatór sira ne'ebé sai obstákulu ba poténsia sira ne'e. Rezultadu husi peskiza ne'e sei oferese dadus nesesáriu atu kria polítika públiku ne'ebé akomoda kreximentu setór indústria ki’ik iha rai-laran. Peskiza ne'e uza metodolojia kualitativa ho kombinasaun entrevista individual no diskusaun grupu, hodi rona esperiénsia no ideas sira husi parte sira ne'ebé durante ne'e diretamente halo prosesamentu ba produtu agríkola no parte sira ne'ebé involve indiretamente liu husi sira nia apoiu ba produtór sira. Respondente sira ba peskiza ne'e mak produtór ki’ik sira ne'ebé halo produsaun nudár grupu no mós kompañia privadu sira ne'ebé halo prosesamentu ba produtu agrikultura nian.

Bainhira Bayu-Undan sei Maran: Dezafiu no Oportunidade sira

Husi Charles Scheiner.  Powerpoint ka PDF
Rendimentu husi petroleum dala ruma labele ona kontinua atu apoiu Timor-Leste nia ekonomia no finansas estadu nian, no nasaun ida ne’e tenke hetan ai-han seluk. Durante tinan 14, osan husi esportasaun mina no gas – liu liu kampu Bayu-Undan, fasilita kriasaun instituisaun estadu nian, no ajuda povu atu sai husi periodu brutalidade, funu no estraga la halimar. Maibé mina rai sei remata lalais: ita simu ona 97% husi reseita husi projetu petróleu dezenvolve ona, no laiha serteza kona ba reseita tan. Aprezentasaun ida ne’e sei esplika istória peskiza no esplorasaun mina no gas iha Timor-Leste, posibilidade atu hetan rendimentu tan husi petróleu ka mineiras, no mehi nafatin atu hetan rikeza husi li’ur. Aprezentasaun mós diskute alternativa sira prátiku no sustentável liu, bazeia ba Timor-Leste nia riku soin umanu no renovavel.

Mina, Deve no Sustentabilidade: Timor-Leste nia Planu Empréstimu no nia Implikasaun ba Futuru

Husi Niall Almond. Powerpoint ka PDF
Iha 2012, Timor-Leste komesa empresta osan husi instituisaun internasionál hodi finansa projetu infrastrutura sira, no dezde tempu ne’ebá Timor-Leste asina ona kontratu empréstimu sanulu-resin-rua. Timor-Leste nia rekursu petrolíferu besik hotu ona, no ekonomia naun-petrolíferu seidauk iha mudansa boot - maioria kreximentu ekonómiku dezde independénsia akontese de’it tanba governu gasta osan mina no gás barak, la’ós tanba atividade produtívu. Ajénsia no observadór independente fó ona avizu katak Governu tenke kuidadu bainhira atu foti deve tan, tanba situasaun ekonómiku sei fraku hela. Maske nune’e, Orsamentu Estadu 2017 iha planu atu empresta osan barak liu kompara ho uluk. Paper ida ne’e sei analiza Governu Timor-Leste nia deve agora no iha futuru, projetu sira ne’ebé hetan prioridade, no impaktu ba Timor-Leste nia sustentabilidade ekonómiku. Paper sei diskute mós  nasaun seluk ne’ebé foti deve ne’ebé boot no ikus liu sira la bele selu fali, no paper mós fó sujestaun lubuk ida atu oinsá mak Timor-Leste bele evita destinu aat hanesan ne’e.

20 June 2017

Timor-Leste’s oil wealth: financing government, building for development and providing for its people

Presentation to the Conference marking 25 Years of the International Platform of Jurists for East Timor

By Charles Scheiner, Researcher, La’o Hamutuk. Lisbon, 29 May 2017. Link to PDF or PowerPoint version of the presentation, or to a PDF of this article for printing.
Other speakers at the conference included Sisto dos Santos from HAK on Timor-Leste: Between the struggle for truth and efforts to forget the past, Leonie Tanggahma from ULMWP on West Papua, an issue whose time has come, as well as Joaquim Fonseca and Xanana Gusmao.

In 1991, IPJET joined the people of Timor-Leste in struggling for their legal right to self-determination. At the same time, people in the U.S. formed ETAN, the East Timor Action Network. After the Timorese people restored imminent independence in the 1999 referendum, we both asked our friends there what they needed from international solidarity.

Many had similar answers – “we’ve been isolated and focused on our struggle against Indonesia, and haven’t had the chance to learn about the world. Our country is being flooded with institutions we know little about — and they all tell us what’s best for our people. We know enough not to believe everything they say – but please help us understand what they want, who they serve, what they have done in other places, and how we can ensure that their presence supports the Maubere people.”

Seventeen years ago last week, La’o Hamutuk was formed in response to that request, as an independent, small, local civil society organization. We began to analyze and report on international organizations active in Timor-Leste. We encouraged them, and later Timor-Leste’s own government, to strengthen political sovereignty (including the maritime boundary with Australia), legal accountability (including ending impunity for crimes against humanity committed during the Indonesian occupation), environmental protection, and sustainable, equitable economic development.

Today I’m going to talk a little about the last point – the implications of Timor-Leste having been one of the most petroleum-export-dependent countries in the world, and possible consequences and adaptations as that era comes to an abrupt end.

As we heard earlier, the independence struggles of both Western Sahara and West Papua are also entangled with non-renewable resources, and I hope Timor-Leste’s experience can provide some lessons for them as well.

Moving away from petroleum dependency

Although oil companies have explored Timor-Leste for oil and gas for more than a century, large-scale extraction activities began in the Timor Sea in the late 1990s.  Since then, Timor-Leste’s government has received about US $21 billion in oil revenues from Elang-Kakatua, Kitan and Bayu-Undan – and only about $0.4 billion more remains.

Timor-Leste has wisely invested most of its oil income in its Petroleum Fund, whose investments have earned more than $3.8 billion. Timor-Leste’s government has spent nearly $9 billion of the money from oil and investments, and about $16 billion remains in the Fund, whose balance peaked about two years ago and has begun to decline. Between 2002 and 2016, oil money paid for 83% of all government spending. The Ministry of Finance expects the Petroleum Fund to finance 75% of state activities during the next five years, although oil and gas income in 2016 was only one-eighth of its 2012 peak.

If you consider the Petroleum Fund as part of the state, Timor-Leste went into deficit in 2015, and the funding gap will increase significantly after this year. All of the numbers I have used so far come from government reports, but the government does not release projections more than five years into the future. Therefore, La’o Hamutuk made our own estimates, and we expect that the Petroleum Fund could be entirely empty within a decade if the state pays for all the things it intends to build.

Where the money goes

Ten years ago, oil revenues began to surge, a new government was elected, and Timor-Leste’s state budget became the second-fastest growing in the world. Expenditures increased ten-fold between 2005 and 2012.

Although budget escalation has moderated since then, spending continues to go up and, since 2014, recurrent spending has been far more than the sustainable income from the Petroleum Fund. The government expects this to continue through at least 2021.

Timor-Leste’s leaders say that their priorities are health, education, agriculture and water supply. Unfortunately, all four of these together will get only one-fifth of state spending this year. More money goes for roads and other physical infrastructure, veterans and other pensions, and the machinery of government.

Half of the people in Timor-Leste are under 20 years old, and 60% make their livelihoods as farmers, but appropriations for education and agriculture have been dropping during the last four years. Education spending has been cut by 20%, even as the number of school-age children went up by 10%. Child malnutrition is among the highest in the world, yet spending on health is lower than it was in 2014 – and is less than half of the norm for developing countries.

Time does not allow a detailed discussion of other programs which consume state resources but may not provide social or economic returns greater their financial, social and environmental costs. The Tasi Mane project, the Oecusse special zone and three international airports will absorb billions of dollars without benefitting most people. In addition, Timor-Leste is borrowing more than a billion dollars to build infrastructure, which will have to be repaid after the Petroleum Fund is gone. La’o Hamutuk estimates that basic services, already far below what people deserve, may have to be slashed by 85% in about ten years.

Oil money and the economy

If Timor-Leste can develop a strong, diverse economic base, this austerity will not be necessary. Unfortunately, the so-called ‘non-oil economy’ is still not strong enough to sustain the country.

About half of the ‘non-oil’ economy is fueled by state spending of oil money, as exemplified by construction and public administration. After adjusting for population growth and inflation, the productive sectors of agriculture and manufacturing have shrunk during the fifteen years since independence.

La’o Hamutuk believes that GDP gives a misleading picture of how an economy serves its people, especially when more than 40% live below the poverty line. We think it is more appropriate to count people, not dollars.

Only about a quarter of the working-age population are in the formal economy – the rest are subsistence farmers or fishers, not working for income, or students. Of those who work for dollars, roughly equal numbers work for the government, the private sector, and very small family businesses. Although this picture shows that there is tremendous under-utilized human potential, it also shows the challenges of expecting private companies, such as foreign investors or the oil industry, to build the country’s economy.

The post-war baby boom is reaching working age, and the potential labor force will increase by about 19,000 this year and even more in the future. Projects like Heineken, TL Cement and Tasi Mane will each employ fewer people than join the labor force in a single month. A more holistic approach to economic development is clearly needed, concentrating on agriculture and production for local consumption.

Another way to look at Timor-Leste’s economy is to examine the money flowing in and out of the country. We import more than $500 million worth of goods each year, and about the same amount of services. Non-oil goods exports, almost all coffee, are around $20 million. As the red line in the graph shows, our non-oil trade deficit is about a billion dollars each year, and hasn’t changed much since 2013. The green line shows the balance after oil revenues and returns from investing the Petroleum Fund are added in. This first fell below zero two years ago, and will converge with the red line as the Petroleum Fund is depleted. Although the deficit may decline after Timor-Leste has no more money to pay for imports, the effects on people will be disastrous if local production has not significantly improved.

What does the future hold?

Bayu-Undan is almost empty, with less than a half-billion dollars more expected. Although petroleum sector officials raised public hopes last week by announcing that the government has approved ConocoPhillips to drill more wells in that field, this is not something to celebrate. The cost of these wells, which are necessary to extract the last puddles of oil and gas from the nearly-exhausted reserve, will come out of Timor-Leste’s revenues.

Development of the Greater Sunrise oil and gas field, which is somewhat larger than Bayu-Undan, has been delayed due to disagreements with Australia about maritime boundaries and disagreements with the oil companies about where to liquefy the natural gas. The government has recently awarded no-bid contracts to national oil company TimorGAP to explore onshore and offshore for new fields, but prospects are limited. It would be foolhardy to pin Timor-Leste’s future on the faint possibility that deposits were missed during more than half a century of exploration.

While talking about economic diversification, policymakers continue to dream of wealth obtained without facing the daunting challenges of developing Timor-Leste’s workforce and productive sectors. Parliament is discussing a mining law, and government is proposing to create a state-owned Mining Company and a Minerals Fund, although Timor-Leste’s limited reserves of non-precious minerals have nowhere near the value of already-exploited petroleum fields.

In addition, tax holidays and a new private investment law and policy hope to attract foreign investors, who will take more money out of Timor-Leste than the capital they bring in. A huge new container port will make it harder for local products to compete with imports, as will free trade agreements that come with ASEAN membership.

La’o Hamutuk is hopeful about the future of Timor-Leste, provided that policy-makers change course soon and prioritize renewable sectors which involve many people and are realistically sustainable. These include:
  • Food production, primarily for local consumption
  • Agricultural processing, so that more of the money from our crops stays in the country
  • Light industry, to manufacture products used locally and to reduce imports
  • Eco-tourism which makes use of the country’s unique advantages and potential markets, rather than trying to divert business from Bali’s luxury resorts
  • Remittances from Timorese workers who are temporarily overseas, while encouraging them to come home and contribute more to the development of the nation.
The struggle for sustainable, equitable economic sovereignty – building a diversified economy which can fulfill the economic and social rights of the poorest and most vulnerable – is more complex and difficult than overcoming the Indonesian occupation. Without a common enemy like Indonesia, it is harder to unify people, especially when a small part of the population is doing well from public money, either as contract brokers or implementers, or as advisors or pensioners paid by the state.

Timor-Leste’s greatest resource is its people, and history has proven that they can endure tremendous hardships while achieving victory against overwhelming odds. The country would not be independent today except for their persistence and the support of IPJET and other international friends.

We each need to encourage our own governments, including the one in Dili, to prepare for the end of oil, and to leverage what’s left of Timor-Leste’s limited natural resource endowment to invest in a country, economy and society which build on their own strengths to provide for all of Timor-Leste’s people.

Time is running out.